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私たちは、加速的で革命的な変革の真っ只中にいます。
変化は、技術、ビジネス、政府、経済、組織構造、価値観、規範など、あらゆる分野で起きています。
そして、その結果として、私たちがどのように生き、働き、遊ぶかに影響を与えています。
We are in the midst of an accelerating, revolutionary transformation.
Change is happening everywhere – in technology, business, government, economics, organizational structures, values and norms –
and consequently affects how we live, work and play.
私たちは、産業界や政府のリーダーとして、この変化によって政治や私たちの組織を運営するための
新しい方法が必要となることを理解しなくてはなりません。
私たちがコミュニケーションをしたり、お互いに相互作用する方法が変わってくるでしょう。
私たちが情報を入手したり、処理する方法が変わってくるでしょう。
私たちがお金を稼いだり、使うことの意味が変わってくるでしょう。
こうした変化の集積により、組織は根本的に変革するでしょう。
As industry and government leaders, we must acknowledge that this change demands new ways of governing and of running our organizations.
The ways in which we communicate and interact with each other will be different.
The methods through which we gain and process information will be different.
The means by which we earn and spend money will be different.
Through the culmination of these and other changes, organizations will be radically transformed.
この変化は、予想できなかったものではありません。
40年前の1970年、アルビンとハイジ・トフラーは、
環境の変化が急激に速くなり、それと比べてゆっくりした人々の対策が追いつかなくなることを認識していました。
トフラーは、未来の衝撃的な予想を通して、
変化因子をイメージして未来をとらえ、未来環境の幅広い結果に対して準備することを私たちに説いていました。
This change is not unexpected.
Forty years ago, Alvin and Heidi Toffler recognized that
the pace of environmental change was rapidly accelerating and
threatened to overwhelm the relatively slow pace of human response.
Through Future Shock, the Tofflers persuaded us to
consider the future by imagining drivers of change and preparing for a wide range of resulting future environments.
いま、私たちは次の40年に目を向けています。
私たちは、未来変化の力学を理解するために、
トフラー・アソシエイツ創業者の遺産である、時間を掛けて確立されたこの方法論を使用し続けます。
私たちは、点と点をつなげて未来の成功のための戦略を開発するために、
一見するとバラバラなものごとの収束点と関係性に焦点を合わせます。
Now as we look towards the next 40 years,
we continue to use these time tested methodologies, our founders’ legacy to Toffler Associates,
for understanding the forces of future change.
We focus on the convergence and interdependence of seemingly orthogonal aspects
to connect the dots and develop strategies for future success.
トフラーがそうだったように、
私たちは、この方法による準備が未来に対する最善の防御策であると考えています。
以下に40の変化因子の項目があります。
私たちは、これらの項目が未来を形成する変化であると信じています。
In this way, we recognize, as the Tofflers did, that preparation is the best defense against the future.
Here is a sampling of 40 drivers of change that – we believe – will shape the future.
Just in the next three years, approximately 80 nations will hold presidential elections.
The number of women in national leadership positions will increase at an unprecedented rate.
Religious groups will push to get into governments around the world.
The economies of Brazil, China and India will become less US and EU centric.
Foreign Direct Investments will shift toward developing economies.
Private sector actors, NGOs, religious groups,
“hyper-empowered” individuals whose resources can exceed those of states,
and a wide range of transnational networks – both licit and illicit –
will create a radically different future.
The most pressing geopolitical threat will not be al Qaeda, but its franchises, the wider network-of-networks spawned and inspired by its ideology.
“Hyper-empowered” individuals and groups will continue to gain access to knowledge, technology and finances previously attainable only by nation-states.
NGOs will be the fastest growing non-state actors, and will be key to governmental and industry strategies and solutions.
Governments’ engagement with non-state actors will intensify, shaping issues from security to development.
Military might will seldom be used in isolation again.
Challenges such as
political instability, radicalism,
economic have-nots, population migrations and mobility,
plus widespread youth unemployment
will make hard power insufficient by itself.
The Middle East will witness accelerating reversion to a tangle of religions, sects and ethnicities.
The nature of the balance between Middle Eastern countries will be interrupted by new forms of instability.
Organizations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
will eventually have more influence than national and multi-national organizations
when it comes to education and disease eradication in third world nations.
The number of philanthro-capitalists will increase,
due in no small part to Bill Gates’ efforts
to get billionaires to give away half their fortunes in their lifetimes.
The world stage will continue to have a very small number of players who act irrationally,
such as North Korea and Iran,
but they will have a significant impact on regional and global political issues.
A true test for political leaders
will be in how they handle relationships with these nations,
and to what extent they allow them to control geo-political agendas.
Open, collaborative innovation paradigms
will enable companies to grow innovation capabilities beyond the limits of internal R&D teams.
Technologies will not be developed in-house.
Successful organizations will become adept at integrating large problem-solver networks,
linking “answer seekers” with “problem solvers” across the globe
to rapidly harness the brainpower of international experts.
The world will enter the “Petabyte Age,” where data saturation is the norm.
Widespread quantum computing
will be a realistic possibility in the next 10-15 years,
which could lead to either the rebirth – or the end – of encryption as we know it.
Advances in biotechnology will lead to bio-implants that provide enhanced human performance.
Advances in ubiquitous sensors
will result in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear
and meteorological sensors in everyday person devices, such as cell phones.
Advances in “wild card” technologies
will lead to the ability to “hack” people via neural, computer
or other means to attack cognitive function neutral energy.
Small, agile companies
will continue to bring personal attention to customers,
allowing them to compete effectively with large manufacturers.
Compact fabricators and raw material supplies will replace stockpiling repair parts for maintenance.
Rapid biotechnology advances
will lead to the ability to
remotely trigger automatic production of immune response and medicines in the body via implants or other means.
Rapid technological advances in ubiquitous sensors will lead to the improved ability for bio-health monitoring.
Molecular manufacturing
– the ability to construct powerful, atomically precise products at an exponentially increasing pace –
will create disruptions,
such as an unprecedented invasion of privacy
resulting from cheaper, smaller, more capable and widely available surveillance devices.
In some corners,
including the military and intelligence agencies’ collection of full motion video (FMV),
data is being collected faster than it can be analyzed.
New automated tools need to be developed to replace what is now a human-driven task;
if they aren’t,
then valuable information will risk collecting “cyberdust,”
sitting on a server without being analyzed because of an increasing backlog.
Companies will increasingly follow the Apple/iPhone model of creating value,
not by creating products (in Apple’s case, apps),
but by hosting the marketplace
and charging to connect consumers to producers.
In the US, Chicago, Washington, D.C./Baltimore, San Francisco
and possibly Dallas and/or Philadelphia
will join New York and Los Angeles
as megacities, based on natural population growth.
Global population growth
will increase demand for scarce natural resources
and strain infrastructures (water, food, energy, etc.).
Developed countries will be populated
by a mix of older natives and younger immigrants.
Urbanization and the youth population bulge
will change the make-up and nature of developing nations.
Social Security and Medicare will no longer exist as we know them today.
Spending on long-term care services for the elderly will increase 2.5 times,
nearly quadrupling in constant dollars to $379 billion by 2050.
Spending to cover these services
will not just come from the government,
but from NGOs and business.
New relationships
will break down previously protected borders
and provide new intelligence sources.
Government and business
will reach out to previously unconnected contacts,
exposing new risks.
Communication technologies and social networks
will become increasingly influential,
deciding factors in product and service offerings.
Consumers or customers
will be the most important source of innovation within organizations.
The main driving force for “prosumption” – the unpaid output that we all produce every day –
will be the technology-enhanced interaction
between employees, suppliers, partners and customers.
Rapidly growing amounts of information,
and the proliferation of professional/consumer grade tools for analysis and interpretation,
mean previously empowered individuals
will now be able to see
what organizations are doing,
and promote that information to others.
Consumer opinion of corporate responsibility practices
will influence product/service selection and brand switching.
Changes in global religious demography,
such as the rapid growth of Christianity in the global South
and increased Muslim immigration to Western nations,
will shape public attitudes and government policies.
Growth in religious believers
will have an increased impact,
with major policy and security implications around the world.
China teams with other emerging countries (Brazil, India and China) to influence currency utilization.
China partners with other countries (Venezuela and Africa)
to meet energy needs and to import a wide range of raw materials.
Sustained economic expansion will create renewed global influence.
Bad Actors, specifically Venezuela, will challenge US influence in the region.
Developed countries
will pursue the use of smart power
to promote economic development and nation-building,
increasingly important strategies for national security.
Soft power will get “smart”
as knowledge and communications amplify coordination,
with countries and NGOs providing assistance.
Safe, efficient transportation
will be crucial to the global economy
as it lies at the core of international trade.
Future economic activity
will drive
unprecedented demand for global transportation services.
The strong demand for faster, cheaper delivery of goods
will bring about larger container ships in the shipping industry
and spur further improvements
to the Suez and Panama Canals.
Corporations will become nimble enough
to maneuver in and out of other countries very quickly.
The ability to exploit information across traditional boundaries
will be a great boon to developing countries
as they come to recognize the importance of knowledge capital.
Recognizing the importance of knowledge capital,
developing countries
will begin to place priority emphasis on education and knowledge transfer.
The US will make international education a top priority,
encouraging Americans to travel to other countries
and see themselves as part of the global community.
Every chunk of knowledge has a limited shelf life,
becoming, at some point, obsolete – “obsoledge.”
Accelerating change speeds up the rate at which knowledge becomes obsoledge.
Every passing semi-second,
accuracy of our knowledge about our investments, our markets, our competition, our technology and our customers
will diminish.
Obsoledge costs will be in the form of degraded decision-making.
Work will continue to be driven by knowledge.
The increased knowledge content of work means that
communication and the speed of knowledge transfer
will be increasingly critical to the success of business.
The proliferation of high speed internet connections,
the growth of low-cost videoconference technology,
and the ability to rapidly and easily move around the globe via interrelated networks of airlines
will allow white-collar workers to complete their work anywhere in the world,
freeing them from their cubicles.
The major challenge this will create
is for local and national governments
to play catch-up with regard to modernizing tax law.
New abilities to identify resource deposits and extract them at low cost
will give increased economic power to previously poor or ignored nations.
Energy resources will be used as leverage in broad economic warfare.
Energy competition will be multi- and cross-regional.
Iran and Russia will use energy to increase power.
Governments will use diplomatic means
to blur the lines between energy and other key issues.
Advances in nanotechnology
will lead to a significant proliferation in diversity of high-powered,
portable energy generation and storage devices.
This will spur the use of renewable electricity generation,
which was previously prohibited due to storage deficiencies.
Alternatives to oil and natural gas
will create losers in a post-petroleum world,
including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and smaller Gulf states.
Climate change will influence all industries and sectors of society,
in part by affecting the infrastructures on which they rely.
A rise in sea levels and
the resulting loss of territorial land
will cause a conflict from displaced populations around the world.
Buried Arctic mineral wealth and oil fields
will be made more accessible by melted seas, fueling conflict.
The seventeen elements
that make up a group known as rare earth metals
will remain critical to the performance of hundreds of products and technologies.
The US will be reliant on China’s metals to produce such things as
high-performance weapons components,
internal guidance systems,
microwave communications systems,
radars,
the motors and generators that power aircraft and ships,
wind turbines,
high-performance batteries,
hybrid cars,
superconductors,
computer chips
and digital displays.
Advances in water filtration
will solve the growing need for drinkable water,
significantly reducing global conflict
between water-starved nation-states.
Better water filtration
will eliminate many forms of disease
from developing countries,
spurring their development.
Individuals will increasingly start and maintain small gardens
to reduce their dependence on large food manufacturers and distributors.
Community Supported Agriculture (CSA)
will continue to grow in prominence and acceptance in urban areas
for both individual consumers and restaurants.
Beyond simply reducing harmful outputs,
organizations will improve and strengthen the resiliency of the environment,
helping ensure that
it can withstand and thrive in the face of the
threats – both natural and man-made – that accelerating change creates.
トフラー・アソシエイツは、世界を変えるために創設されました。
卓越した知識で変化のための触媒となり、クライアントのために成功の未来を創造することに情熱をかたむけます。
私たちは、難問を抱える組織を助ける、活動的で革新的な助言組織（コンサルティング会社）です。
これらの問題は複雑で、ときどき思いがけない現れ方をします。
曖昧で、予測不可能で、ほとんどの場合、非線形に突然やってたように見えます。
Toffler Associates was created to change the world.
Our passion is to serve as a catalyst for change,
creating successful futures
for clients through uncommon knowledge.
We are a dynamic, innovative advisory firm
that helps organizations with tough problems to solve.
These problems are complex, presenting in sometimes unexpected ways.
They’re ambiguous, unpredictable and most oftentimes non-linear.
しかし、意志を持つことで、周りのインフラ、組織、システムとともに、個人や社会の行動を変えることができます。
私たちは、連邦政府機関、情報コミュニティー、団体、教育機関などの公共部門のクライアントとともに、
より効果的にリソースを使用して、永続的な社会的信頼を構築する方法を開発して実行に移すよう努力します。
私たちは、運輸、航空宇宙、化学、材料、先端材料、情報技術、防衛市場などのような民間部門のクライアントとともに、
売上向上を促進する戦略を創造して実行するよう努力します。
But their resolution can transform the behavior of individuals and societies,
along with the infrastructures, organizations and systems that exist to serve them.
We work with public-sector clients,
such as federal agencies, the intelligence community, associations and educational institutions,
to develop and implement ways to use resources more effectively and to build lasting public trust.
We work with private-sector clients, like those
in the transportation, aerospace, chemical, advanced materials, information technology and defense markets,
to create and execute strategies that drive top-line growth.
トフラー・アソシエイツは他とは異なります。
私たちは、未来からスタートして、私たちを取り囲む変化を何が押し進めているかを未来から振り返ります。
変化を理解するための私たちのモデルは、
私たちの創設者である世界的に有名な未来学者アルビンとハイジ・トフラーによって会社に受け渡された遺産です。
私たちのアプローチは、先を見据えた方法論、深い産業知識、強力な洞察の結合という、努力が反映されたものです。
これらは、分析を行動に切り替えるための、世界的なエキスパートたちのネットワークを通して得られます。
Toffler Associates is different
because we start in the future and look back
to see what is really driving change around us.
Our model for understanding change
and its implications is a legacy passed to the firm by our founders,
world-renowned futurists Alvin and Heidi Toffler.
Our approach is a contemporary reflection of their efforts,
combining forward-looking methodologies, in-depth industry knowledge and powerful insights
gained through a network of global experts
to turn analysis into action.
このように、私たちは、クライアントの環境を変化させる力をきちんと理解して、未来が要求するものを準備することで、
クライアントの永続的な成功を創造します。
私たちは、人々に実際に関わる何かを創造している民間企業や政府機関、
私たちの生活にプラスになることに挑戦しているクライアントとともに働くことの中に、日々のインスピレーションを発見します。
私たちの目的は、彼らがそれを達成するのを支援することです。
私たちの会社を一つのコミュニティとして一致団結させるのは、こうした情熱です。
In doing so, we help clients create enduring success
by better understanding the forces driving change around them,
preparing them for what the future will demand.
We find daily inspiration in working with
commercial enterprises and government agencies that are creating something
that really matters to people,
clients who are trying to make a difference in all of our lives.
Our purpose is to help them achieve that.
It is the passion that unites our firm as one community.
どのカジノが自分に最適か分からないですか?
